Fourth-Generation Freight, and a Broker Who Won’t Cross Her Fingers
September 28, 2026Diesel’s Up, Down, and Sideways: Part 1
Here’s Who Feels It
Fuel prices used to be a lot simpler. These days diesel moves every week, and everyone on the supply chain feels it.
So you’ve noticed diesel. Hard not to. Back in January the national average was around $3.46 a gallon. By late September it hit $6.53, the highest weekly number the U.S. Energy Information Administration has on record. It’s eased a little since, but it’s still sitting around $6.35, and it moves enough week to week that nobody’s getting comfortable.
Here’s how that rolls downhill.
The 3PL. If you’re the one arranging freight, your quotes now have the shelf life that’s about something less than of a carton of milk. Fuel surcharges reset every week off the DOE index, so the rate you gave a shipper Monday may not hold by Friday.
The spot market is even messier. Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, put it plainly: “Rates usually take three to four weeks to catch up with rising diesel prices.” Until they do, the carrier is the one paying for the fuel.
The driver and owner-operator. This is where it really stings. Fuel is already an owner-operator’s biggest expense, and a flatbed hauling heavy or oversize freight isn’t exactly sipping it. Surcharges help, but they’re pegged to a national average and they lag the pump. Fuel up in a high-price region and you eat the difference. Some small carriers are seriously thinking about hanging it up.
The receiver. Higher freight cost shows up on the invoice, plain and simple. It shows up in scheduling too. Fewer available trucks means fewer options and less wiggle room on delivery windows, so planning ahead matters more than usual.
The end user. Eventually it lands on everybody, because just about everything rode on a truck at some point. Steel, lumber, machinery, groceries. All of it.
Any good news? Some. The EIA’s latest outlook has retail diesel averaging around $4.49 a gallon in 2027. That’s better, not cheap, and forecasts have missed plenty this year, so don’t bet the farm on it.
So that’s who’s feeling it. The better question is what to do about it. In Part 2, coming in a couple of days, we’ll get into the practical side: how to plan around fuel surcharges, when to lock in capacity, and how to keep a fluctuating diesel market from turning every load into a guessing game.