Tipping Points

Getting There

Two hundred countries just concluded the United Nations Climate Change Conference ⏤  COP28 this year ⏤ and produced a remarkable agreement.

The compromise deal “called on” all nations to “transition away” from fossil fuels ” in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” in order to prevent the worst outcome of climate change, while also “accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

Even more remarkable: COP28 took place in, of all places, the United Arab Emirates, which sits on the world’s sixth-largest oil reserves.

That phrase “called on” is a couched term. It’s non-binding yet demonstrates the seriousness with which the world’s governments are moving toward that net zero goal.

Sometimes we reach tipping points through policy: guard rails established by local, state, and national governments that become laws.

Think of how the national speed limit laws have changed over the decades. From the Washington Post, February 1979:

“Congress imposed the 55-mph limit in 1974 as a fuel-conservation measure, which it is; federal officials estimate it conserves about 9 million gallons of gasoline a day. But the speed limit has also turned out to be a major public health measure, perhaps the most effective life-saver ever passed by Congress. The best estimate is that it has helped save the lives of about 36,000 people in the last five years.”

And sometimes we reach tipping points as a result of consumer and business trends. These often outpace government regulation.

Think of how Artificial Intelligence like ChatGPT andGoogle Bard seemingly came out of nowhere (years and years in development). And then think of how governments are now trying to catch up and establish guard rails on A.I. so it doesn’t take over the world.

All of this makes for a complicated and fascinating mix of consumer-driven and policy-driven goods and services. An old, gas-guzzling truck next to a hybrid SUV next to an all-electric car. All of them idling. Waiting for a crew to move its equipment into place so a section of roadway can get widened.

Natch, to ease traffic congestion.